Negative interest rates after a lapse of two years for the first time positive monetary control maneuvers to increase 2012
National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data show that the February CPI rose 3.2 percent, the first drop to below 4%. More concern is the bank one-year deposit interest rate has gone through 24 months is negative, but also for the first time from negative to positive. More concern is the bank one-year deposit interest rate has gone through 24 months is negative, but also for the first time from negative to positive.
Analysts believe that, taking into account the trend of annual prices flat to down, the effective interest rate of the Chinese residents in the past two years to reverse the continued negative pattern has. The disappearance of negative interest rates, or to a certain extent, change the configuration of the current residents of the capital, and more space for China in the future operation of monetary and credit policy maneuvers. Real interest rates end 24 months as a negative pattern
According to Central Bank data, China's one-year deposit interest rate of 3.5%, the February CPI rose sharply from 4.5% in January down to less than 3.5% and this means that the one-year real interest rates have been converted to positive.
Simply put, the negative interest rate refers to the prices rise faster than the residents of one-year deposit rate. The long-term negative interest rates will not only lead to distortions in the allocation of financial resources in the market, likely to cause the phenomenon of asset price bubbles, while savers, negative interest rates, but also a wealth erosion. Recent years in China in 2004, 2007 and 2010, three times a long-term negative interest rate stage, the negative interest rate over 20 months.
Analysts believe that if people's actual interest rates continued to positive, indicating that the residents' bank deposits began to "beat" the price to achieve savings and increase the value.
In the past two years, despite the central bank for six consecutive raise deposit interest rates of the cumulative 150 basis points more rapid price increase during the same period, that period of time, residents' deposits has not been able to outperform the CPI in the last year of a month some degree of negative interest rates once reached more than 200 basis points, which means that depositors one million deposit after one year, taken out, even if you count the interest will continue to shrink more than two hundred dollars, the bank deposits of residents living in shrinking the plight.
The experts pointed out that the negative interest rate situation to reverse not only marks the inflation expectations of the society as a whole began to weaken, but also gradually changing household wealth allocation, part of the deposit will reflow the banking system, increasing the bank loanable funds and reduce the financial risk of a mismatch.
Interest rates from negative to positive, bank deposits, increasing the value of capacity will be enhanced, the impact might be last year's very popular short-term financial products. "Bank Financial said.
Space for monetary control maneuvers
Analysts believe that with the disappearance of the negative interest rate pattern, the room for adjustment of China's monetary policy will have increased.
"We expect annual CPI increase between 2.7% to 3.3% than last year is down significantly, and continued downward and negative interest rates of the CPI year-on-year disappearance of space for the next monetary policy operations in China Bank of Communications (4.92 0.02,0.41%), chief economist with that.
The disappearance of negative interest rates will further reduce the possibility of monetary tightening. Negative interest rate situation, in the last decade, the observed changes in monetary policy can be found, negative interest rates and monetary policy there is a direct link between the two. Over the past decade, China had three times the long-term negative interest rate stage, China's monetary policy also will be entered in each negative interest rate situation starts to ferment, continued to tighten the stage.
The disappearance of the continued downward and negative interest rates of the CPI year-on-year structural easing of monetary policy space, in the stabilization of inflationary pressures in the context of expected reserve ratio will continue to drop. "Lian Ping judgment.
Prepared from the recent ratio of two down and the central bank for 10 consecutive weeks to suspend the central issue tickets and other monetary instruments can be seen on the operation of monetary regulation is the continuation of stable and loose fine-tuning of ideas. "China Construction Bank (4.77 - 0.01, -0.21%), Gu Yu, vice president of financial markets.
Analysts believe that, taking into account the trend of annual prices flat to down, the effective interest rate of the Chinese residents in the past two years to reverse the continued negative pattern has. The disappearance of negative interest rates, or to a certain extent, change the configuration of the current residents of the capital, and more space for China in the future operation of monetary and credit policy maneuvers. Real interest rates end 24 months as a negative pattern
According to Central Bank data, China's one-year deposit interest rate of 3.5%, the February CPI rose sharply from 4.5% in January down to less than 3.5% and this means that the one-year real interest rates have been converted to positive.
Simply put, the negative interest rate refers to the prices rise faster than the residents of one-year deposit rate. The long-term negative interest rates will not only lead to distortions in the allocation of financial resources in the market, likely to cause the phenomenon of asset price bubbles, while savers, negative interest rates, but also a wealth erosion. Recent years in China in 2004, 2007 and 2010, three times a long-term negative interest rate stage, the negative interest rate over 20 months.
Analysts believe that if people's actual interest rates continued to positive, indicating that the residents' bank deposits began to "beat" the price to achieve savings and increase the value.
In the past two years, despite the central bank for six consecutive raise deposit interest rates of the cumulative 150 basis points more rapid price increase during the same period, that period of time, residents' deposits has not been able to outperform the CPI in the last year of a month some degree of negative interest rates once reached more than 200 basis points, which means that depositors one million deposit after one year, taken out, even if you count the interest will continue to shrink more than two hundred dollars, the bank deposits of residents living in shrinking the plight.
The experts pointed out that the negative interest rate situation to reverse not only marks the inflation expectations of the society as a whole began to weaken, but also gradually changing household wealth allocation, part of the deposit will reflow the banking system, increasing the bank loanable funds and reduce the financial risk of a mismatch.
Interest rates from negative to positive, bank deposits, increasing the value of capacity will be enhanced, the impact might be last year's very popular short-term financial products. "Bank Financial said.
Space for monetary control maneuvers
Analysts believe that with the disappearance of the negative interest rate pattern, the room for adjustment of China's monetary policy will have increased.
"We expect annual CPI increase between 2.7% to 3.3% than last year is down significantly, and continued downward and negative interest rates of the CPI year-on-year disappearance of space for the next monetary policy operations in China Bank of Communications (4.92 0.02,0.41%), chief economist with that.
The disappearance of negative interest rates will further reduce the possibility of monetary tightening. Negative interest rate situation, in the last decade, the observed changes in monetary policy can be found, negative interest rates and monetary policy there is a direct link between the two. Over the past decade, China had three times the long-term negative interest rate stage, China's monetary policy also will be entered in each negative interest rate situation starts to ferment, continued to tighten the stage.
The disappearance of the continued downward and negative interest rates of the CPI year-on-year structural easing of monetary policy space, in the stabilization of inflationary pressures in the context of expected reserve ratio will continue to drop. "Lian Ping judgment.
Prepared from the recent ratio of two down and the central bank for 10 consecutive weeks to suspend the central issue tickets and other monetary instruments can be seen on the operation of monetary regulation is the continuation of stable and loose fine-tuning of ideas. "China Construction Bank (4.77 - 0.01, -0.21%), Gu Yu, vice president of financial markets.
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